If HoL can deal a lot of damage and ideally kill the Macedonian in the feudal age, then he's golden. Maybe with a castle timing if necessary, but if this goes to castle on even grounds, the Macedonian Riddari and the upgrades are going to be too much. Lancaster no longer has that punch that carries through the game; it falls off very quickly. If they aren't able to get a significant lead in feudal, they fizzle out unceremoniously.

The lords are pretty chunky and we haven't really found an answer to them until you get to a specific mass. But the problem is you have your natural counter: you go archers against lords, but then Lancaster switches into Hobelars and the Hobelars just destroy the archers. So it feels like a heavy back and forth and Lancaster always seems to come out ahead. Macedonians, though, do have a bit more of an answer to that composition. With the early Varangians they already have something beefier to handle what comes through. And most importantly, if they can get to the Riddari champion stage in feudal, it becomes a lot easier.

With the Imperial Hippodrome, you have free units and mobility, which helps counter House of Lancaster's pressure by negating their reinforcement advantage.

Macedonian Bogmaðr archers bypass armor, making House of Lancaster Lords much less durable.

Just a few short walls can make Macedonian free cavalry units very hard to roam, and easy to track when they only have one real path.